A new edition every morning

Five cards a day.
A little sharper.

Learn the why behind things, and how far to trust what you know. Every morning, five cards: answer, say how sure you are, then see why.

  • 5cards a day
  • 2minutes
  • 20subjects
  • 13languages

Nature

To the eyes of a deer, what does a tiger’s orange coat look most like?

How sure are you?

Medium · commit before you turn it over.Being right matters less than knowing how often you are.

Nature

To the eyes of a deer, what does a tiger’s orange coat look most like?

Green, like the leaves. Deer have two kinds of colour cone, not three, so orange and green give them the same signal. Fennell and colleagues modelled this and found the tiger nearly matches foliage for its prey while standing out to people. Mammals cannot make green fur; orange is the nearest thing that works.

The trap: Assuming the prey sees the same bright orange that people see.

Bar move

Judge a disguise by the eyes it has to fool, not your own.

Source · Fennell et al., J. R. Soc. Interface, 2019

Thinking

A rope hugs the equator. Add 1 m to its length and raise it evenly all round. Can a cat crawl under?

How sure are you?

Medium · commit before you turn it over.Being right matters less than knowing how often you are.

Thinking

A rope hugs the equator. Add 1 m to its length and raise it evenly all round. Can a cat crawl under?

Yes, easily. A circle’s circumference is 2π times its radius, so adding 1 m to the rope lifts it by 1 ÷ 2π, about 16 cm, all the way round — whatever the size of the circle. The same extra metre around a football would lift it by the same 16 cm.

The trap: One metre spread over 40,000 km feels like nothing at all.

Bar move

When the intuition comes from size, check whether size appears in the formula.

Source · Circumference and radius of a circle

Weird facts

A deep-sea octopus in Monterey Canyon guarded one clutch of eggs. For how long?

How sure are you?

Medium · commit before you turn it over.Being right matters less than knowing how often you are.

Weird facts

A deep-sea octopus in Monterey Canyon guarded one clutch of eggs. For how long?

About 4.5 years. Researchers recognised the same Graneledone boreopacifica female by her scars on 18 dives between May 2007 and September 2011, about 1,400 m down; she was never seen eating. Cold water slows development, so her roughly 160 eggs took 53 months to hatch, the longest brooding known for any animal.

The trap: Shallow-water octopuses brood for weeks or months, so months sounds right.

Bar move

A figure learned in one setting can mislead badly in a colder one.

Source · MBARI release via EurekAlert, 2014

Medicine

A builder arrives in agony with a 15 cm nail through his boot. Sedated, the boot comes off. What did doctors find?

How sure are you?

Medium · commit before you turn it over.Being right matters less than knowing how often you are.

Medicine

A builder arrives in agony with a 15 cm nail through his boot. Sedated, the boot comes off. What did doctors find?

The nail between his toes. It had gone through the boot without touching skin, yet he needed strong painkilling sedation before anyone could pull it out. His brain produced real agony from what it saw and expected. Pain is the brain’s judgement of danger, not a direct reading of damage.

The trap: A wound right through the foot, since agony like that must mean damage.

Bar move

How much something hurts measures the threat you see, not the harm done.

Source · Fisher, Hassan & O’Connor, BMJ, 1995

Language

When SOS became the international distress signal in 1906, what did its three letters stand for?

How sure are you?

Medium · commit before you turn it over.Being right matters less than knowing how often you are.

Language

When SOS became the international distress signal in 1906, what did its three letters stand for?

Nothing at all. The 1906 Berlin radiotelegraph convention chose it for its Morse: three dots, three dashes, three dots, sent as one unbroken pattern that is hard to mistake even through static. Save Our Souls was fitted to the letters later. Engineers picked a sound; storytellers supplied the words.

The trap: Save Our Souls, because a signal that urgent must say something.

Bar move

A meaning attached afterwards can feel older than the thing it explains.

Source · International Radiotelegraph Convention, Berlin, 1906

Day done

80% sure.
50% right.

The gap between the two is what Astute closes. Five new cards, every morning.

Get Astute

How a day works

Five cards a day, two minutes.

A new edition every morning. This is the shape of one.

Every morning

Five new cards

Chosen for you, from your subjects.

Your mix

Your subjects, your level

Never one you've read.

Your call

Say how sure you are

It matters more than being right.

The reveal

Flip it

The answer, one line to repeat tonight, and the source.

The Space card flipped: the answer about plutonium-238, the bar move 'The edge of the solar system is a supply-chain problem', and the source

The streak

Come back tomorrow

A streak, with freezes for the evening you forget.

Day done: 'Day 1 · five read' above today's five, with a violet Psychology card asking 'Should schools sort pupils into classes by ability?'

Calibration

Say how sure you are.

Astute doesn't reward being right. It rewards knowing how likely you are to be right.

Every answer carries a number: 50, 60, 70, 80 or 90 per cent sure. Over the weeks, Astute plots how often you were right at each. Drag to read a typical first month.

How sure are you?

You said 70%.

You were right 63% of the time. 7 points overconfident.

How often you were right 40% 60% 80% 100% Perfectly calibrated 63% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% How sure you said you were

Principles, not trivia

What you got wrong comes back — somewhere new.

One card teaches a card. A principle teaches everything it touches.

Miss the base rate in a clinic and, weeks later, it comes back in a crowd. Tap a card to flip it.

One principle Base rates

Medicine

A test for a rare disease is 99% accurate. You test positive. How likely is it that you’re ill?

Tap to flip

Medicine

A test for a rare disease is 99% accurate. You test positive. How likely is it that you’re ill?

About 9%. If one person in a thousand has the disease, the test finds them — and flags about ten healthy people alongside. Most positives are false ones.

Bar move

Before you trust a positive, ask how rare the thing is.

Technology

Face recognition is 99% accurate. It flags a face in a crowd of 100,000. How likely is it that they’re on the watchlist?

Tap to flip

Technology

Face recognition is 99% accurate. It flags a face in a crowd of 100,000. How likely is it that they’re on the watchlist?

About 1%. If ten people in that crowd are on the list, the system finds them — and a thousand who aren’t. Same maths, different world.

Bar move

Ninety-nine per cent accurate can still be wrong almost every time.

Subjects

Twenty subjects.

Every card, chosen for you.

Inside

The whole app, in five screens.

Today’s five, the answer behind each card, the day done, a shelf to explore, and your record.

Widgets

On your home screen.

Today's card on your home screen. Your streak on your lock screen. Today's five, and how far you are.

  • Today's cardThe first question of your day, before you open the app.
  • Your streakA number on the home screen, a ring on the lock screen.
  • Today's fiveHow far through the day you are, at a glance.
Astute home screen widgets: today's Space card with a 12-day streak, a day-streak counter reading 12, an Economics card marked done for today, and Today's five showing 2 of 5 read
Astute lock screen widget: '12 days · Astute', today's Space card and a ring showing 12

The science

What the evidence says.

  1. You can't train general intelligence.

    Simons et al., 2016
  2. You can train away specific biases, and it transfers.

    Morewedge et al., 2015Sellier, Scopelliti & Morewedge, 2019
  3. You can train calibration.

    Mellers et al., Good Judgment Project — about 10% better forecasts

So Astute doesn't promise a bigger brain. It trains the three things that move.

Pricing

Make all five yours.

Astute is free every morning. Astute+ chooses every card for you.

Free

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  • Five cards every morning
  • Two of them chosen for you
  • Three at random from your subjects
  • A week of archive
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Prices in euros; the App Store and Google Play show yours.

FAQ

Questions.

Yes. Every morning you get five cards: two chosen for you and three at random from the subjects you picked, with a week of archive. Astute+ makes all five cards yours.

Astute+ yearly starts with fourteen days free. Nothing is charged until the fifteenth day. Cancel before then and you pay nothing: on iPhone in Settings → Apple Account → Subscriptions, on Android in Google Play → Payments & subscriptions → Subscriptions. Cancel later and you keep Astute+ until the period ends.

The app speaks thirteen: English, Italian, German, French, Spanish, Portuguese, Polish, Dutch, Turkish, Japanese, Korean, Chinese and Russian, and follows your phone’s language. The cards themselves are written in English for now.

An AI model writes every card, ahead of time, and each names where its facts come from, so you can check it yourself. Most are read by a second model acting as a critic, and what it can’t confirm goes on a list for a person to check. When enough readers say a card is wrong, it stops being dealt until a person has checked it.

No. Astute starts anonymous. Sign in with Apple or Google when you want to keep your record on a new phone.

No ads, nothing sold. The details are in our privacy policy.

In the app: Profile → Delete account. Without the app, write to us: how to delete your account.

Soon. Astute is on the App Store for iPhone now, and the Android app is coming to Google Play, with the same cards every morning.

Still have a question?Write to thebalecompany@gmail.com. We answer within two working days.

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